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Danielle Smith will likely WIN the next election – poll (UPDATED)

Mark Slapinski by Mark Slapinski
May 21, 2023
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Danielle Smith will likely WIN the next election – poll (UPDATED)
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After being absolved by the Ethics Commissioner, Danielle Smith is predicted as being likely to win the provincial election.

Premier Danielle Smith is likely to win the next provincial election in Alberta, which is set to be held on May 29.

The United Conservative Party (UCP) holds a lead with 46%, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) falls behind with 41%, according to recent polls by 338 Canada.

Updated @338Canada Alberta Model:

UCP: 46 (-17)
NDP: 41 (+17)

(Seat Changes With 2019 Election)

– May 19, 2023 –

Model details here: https://t.co/fCkK3QLqMF pic.twitter.com/dE0m5RvRRM

— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) May 20, 2023

Smith and her party are still likely to win in spite of fake news attacks by the CBC and other media outlets.

However, as other media outlets have pointed out, the race between Smith and NDP candidate Rachel Notley is close, and the election is still over a week away.

The UCP leader was absolved of allegations she e-mailed the crown prosecutor’s office to have charges dropped for a street preacher.

The Ethics Commissioner noted in a recent ruling that there was not enough evidence to support this claim.

United Conservative Party leader Danielle Smith has been absolved by the Ethics commissioner following an investigation into allegations that she and her office contacted Crown prosecutors regarding Covid-19 prosecutions.https://t.co/4oScViMtYI

— True North (@TrueNorthCentre) May 19, 2023

Philippe Fournier, a Politico contributor and the creator of 338 Canada, pushed back on Toronto 99‘s reporting of his polls.

“It’s too close and too early” to predict the winner of the upcoming Alberta election, according to Fournier.

While his latest model predicts that the UCP will win more seats than the NDP, the election is still a week away, and Smith is not guaranteed to win.

Fournier falsely stated that Toronto 99 makes stuff up, which is not true.

For the record, I never said or wrote such a thing. It’s too close and too early.

That said, I don’t expect a retraction/correction from them. They make stuff up. https://t.co/wujWPNjKo5

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) May 20, 2023

CORRECTION: The original version of this article stated that Danielle Smith will win the next provincial election. The headline and contents were re-worded to clarify that while Smith has a lead according to some polls, the race is still very close, and a UCP victory is not guaranteed. The article included a statement from 338 creator Phillippe Fournier explaining the missing context. Read more about our editorial standards.

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Mark Slapinski

Mark Slapinski

Journalist and Political Commentator based in Toronto.

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